The “Approximate Number of Japanese Restaurants Abroad” survey, compiled every two years since 2013 by Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries with cooperation from Japanese embassies and consulates worldwide, was announced on the evening of November 28, one month later than originally scheduled.
The delay in the announcement was likely due to the fact that this was the first decrease. Previously, even during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, the number had maintained a 1.9% increase. This time, however, during a period of normalcy without any major incidents, there was a decrease of 6,000 restaurants worldwide over two years.
For the first time this year, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries released the number of Japanese restaurants by country worldwide, along with their increases or decreases. Looking at these country figures reveals the cause of the 6,000-restaurant decline.
The largest decrease was, unsurprisingly, in China. It saw a 15,260-restaurant decrease, ending at 63,500 restaurants, a 19.4% drop.
France also saw a staggering decline. It dropped by 1,290 restaurants to 3,390, a 27.6% decrease.
Other countries experiencing declines include:
Russia: Down 670 restaurants (21.1% decrease)
Taiwan: Down 340 restaurants (4.6% decrease)
Italy: Down 300 restaurants (12.2% decrease)
Sweden: Down 220 restaurants (41.6% decrease)
Colombia: 100 fewer stores, 19.3% decrease
Singapore: 70 fewer stores, 5.8% decrease
Armenia: 50 fewer stores, 50% decrease
Incidentally, this figure of 181,000 stores is absolutely not a count of Japanese restaurants where Japanese nationals are involved in management.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, a “Japanese restaurant” is counted if it meets any of the following criteria: ① Listed as a “Japanese restaurant” on local websites, phone books, or guidebooks; ② Participates in local organizations like the “Japanese Restaurant Association”; ③ Recognized as a “Japanese restaurant” by local Japanese associations or the Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry; ④ Recognized as a “Japanese restaurant” by overseas diplomatic missions beyond the above.
Therefore, “Japanese cuisine” restaurants operated by local residents or Asian foreigners are naturally included in the count. In fact, some theories suggest that over 90% of such restaurants have no Japanese involvement whatsoever. Actually, it's not just a theory; it's probably accurate.
There was a time when it was said that displaying “Japanese cuisine” on the signboard was key to success for restaurants overseas. Many cases existed across countries where Asian operators, particularly Chinese and Korean, used “Japanese cuisine” signage.
This phenomenon itself is perfectly natural in the restaurant business. If customers enjoy the food, and putting up a “Japanese cuisine” sign attracts them, it makes perfect sense.
In Japan itself, there are countless Chinese restaurants run by Japanese people. Similarly, during the Italian cuisine boom years ago, many restaurants offering Italian food opened, but very few had owners who had undergone formal training in Italy or were recognized by the Italian government.
The issue, I believe, isn't whether Japanese people are involved or not, but having a correct understanding of why the absolute number has decreased.
Japanese food was popular, but many Japanese restaurants overseas served so-called “fake Japanese food,” largely unrelated to Japan or Japanese people. They were hugely successful for a time. However, the Japanese government's inbound tourism policy dealt a major blow to these “fake” establishments.
Previously, people enjoyed ramen and tempura in their home countries, believing them to be delicious. But when they actually traveled to Japan and tasted the authentic versions, they realized what they thought was ramen or tempura was quite different. They discovered that real Japanese food is incredibly delicious. This made it increasingly difficult for imitation restaurants to continue operating under the Japanese food banner.
This impact is likely particularly strong in countries with high numbers of inbound tourists.
Incidentally, “eating Japanese food” has been the number one reason cited by inbound tourists for visiting Japan for over a decade.
While this is wonderful, the more people eat authentic Japanese food in Japan, the more the position of “fake Japanese food” is cornered.
The expansion of Japanese food and beverage companies overseas is also having an impact.
Toridoll, the parent company of Marugame Seimen, is a prime example. As you know, Marugame Seimen's arrival led to its recognition worldwide as a place where tempura could be easily enjoyed.
Post-COVID, the overseas expansion of Japanese food companies has accelerated.
Sushiro now generates more profit from its overseas stores than from its total domestic stores.
When authentic Japanese cuisine—offering consistent quality and affordability in both tempura and sushi—arrives, “imitation Japanese food” can no longer survive.
“Imitation Japanese food” expanded awareness of Japanese cuisine. And now, a shift is occurring from imitation to the real thing.
It could be said that opportunities to provide authentic Japanese cuisine are arriving worldwide.
What we must consider is how to expand Japanese cuisine into foreign countries. It's a matter of the management structure for overseas expansion.
A useful reference point is the various food businesses that entered Japan from the US starting in the 1970s.
McDonald's, KFC, Dunkin' Donuts (now defunct), Mister Donut, Domino's Pizza, and later Starbucks Coffee... all entered the Japanese market through franchising. Japanese franchisees who understood and loved these brands significantly grew each business.
This was never about imposing American success factors. Instead, Japanese franchisees, deeply familiar with each brand's strengths, implemented the best strategies to conquer the Japanese market, leading to today's success.
As the saying goes, “When in Rome, do as the Romans do.” Entrusting each country's operations to capable local franchisees is the common sense approach to expanding food businesses overseas.
The definition of authenticity. No one questions that McDonald's, KFC, or Starbucks are American.
This means that even as franchises, Japanese cuisine is recognized as authentic Japanese cuisine.
While Japan faces population decline and labor shortages, looking globally reveals challenges like population explosion and, in some countries, a lack of job opportunities for young people.
Now is arguably the best time to challenge overseas markets using the franchise strategy.
While the number of Japanese restaurants overseas appears to have plateaued statistically, certain countries and regions are actually entering a transition period from “imitation” to the real thing.
This can be seen as a “plateau” phase poised for further growth.
By shifting the strategic focus from direct operations or exporting ingredients from Japan to exporting the intellectual property of Japanese cuisine through franchising, I believe more companies can seize this opportunity.
We have been sharing information on overseas franchising.